Igor Bondarenko, Managing Partner, Stride Consulting
April 25 – May 31, 2020

Countries remove the isolation regime and open their borders. However, the social distancing measures  will remain in effect for a long time. Under the circumstances, no one knows what consumer preferences will be. According to forecasts for 2020 the global economy will shrink by 3% - 7%. The market is growing, central banks provide the market with excess liquidity, interest rates are at the minimum level.

Igor Bondarenko,  Managing partner,  Stride Consulting,
Арr 01-16, 2020.
 

Despite the decline in industrial production due to the COVID-19 outbreak, the capital market is not cheap. Nevertheless...

Igor Bondarenko,  Managing partner,  Stride Consulting,
Mar 13-20, 2020.

Over the past few days, investors were left with only one safe haven that is the US dollar.  Treasury notes, precious metalls, stocks of state-owned companies ceased to preserve their value and lost trust of investors.  Oil demand shrank sharply and Brent oil dropped to 26 USD per barrel. Losses...

Igor Bondarenko,  Managing partner,  Stride Consulting,
Feb 14-28, 2020.

The diffusion of the coronavirus is becoming an infodemic. The S&P 500 fell back to the level of September 2019 by losing 12% for the week.  Russia's RTS crashed almost 15% due to the collapse of stock prices in the oil and gas sector and the depreciation of the Ruble against the US Dollar. The yield on 10-year US Treasury notes dropped to its all-time low of 1.16%. Should another stock market bubble be deflated now or should it be done gradually?   How will budget deficits be financed? How sustainable is the global economic growth? How long can rates remain low? It is better to give answers to the above questions without coronavirus outbursts.

Igor Bondarenko,  Managing partner,  Stride Consulting,
Jan 31 - Feb 7, 2020.

Unrest associated with the spread of the coronavirus continues to bother investors, and the capital market has not fully recovered. Yields on treasury bonds remain low, gold is traded at prices that are higher than quotes at the beginning of the year. Correction in the oil market weakened the ruble and keeps Russian stocks from new records.

Igor Bondarenko,  Managing partner,  Stride Consulting,
Jan 13-18, 2020.

The entire Russian Government resigned right after the presidential state of the nation address to the Federal Assembly on January 15, 2020. This news came as a surprise although the decision had long been needed and was well-orchestrated. On January 16 the president signed a decree appointing Mikhail Mishustin as Prime Minister of Russia. The executive branch was overhauled smoothly and without delays.

Igor Bondarenko,  Managing partner,  Stride Consulting.

The departing year 2019 has been very generous for optimists who continued to invest despite trade wars, political separatism and sanctions. Low interest rates of central banks boosted liquidity in the stock market, investors chased after high dividend stocks and promising digital projects.

Igor Bondarenko,  Managing partner,  Stride Consulting,
Dec. 2 - 7, 2019.

There has been plenty of positive news this week that has inspired investors to take new risks.

Russia's government unexpectedly resigned after President Vladimir Putin proposed sweeping constitutional changes... Putin said Medvedev would take on a new job as deputy head of Russia’s Security Council, which Putin chairs.

Trade with China has topped $100 B in 2018 for 1st time; share of CNY in RUS reserves is up to almost 15%, with USD down to just 22%. The € accounts for 32%, and even the JPY is up to 4.5%. De-dollarization will be long process, but it has started.

RUS geoeconomics &geopolitics